CryptoCurrents Sentiment & Narratives #13
We doom scroll so you don't have to.
Let’s try something different, shall we?
This week instead of looking at individual tweets, we’ll talk more broadly about the market sentiment and narratives.
Stay awhile, and listen.
Sentiment
Tradersz | Neutral
Tradermayne | Bull 🟢
KeyboardMonkey | Neutral
Ansem | Bull 🟢
CryptoCred | Bull 🟢
DeFi Surfer | Bull 🟢
Donalt | Bull 🟢
Byzantine General | Bull 🟢
Hsaka | Bull 🟢
Tree of Alpha | Bull 🟢
As you can clearly see…
The Crypto Twitter timeline is bullish af. We’ve been on a down/sideways trend since April. The big green candles from last week have brought us right back to were we left off in April. So what now?
Many believe the spike in buying was the result of Blackrock’s push to create the first SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETF. This indeed is massively bullish if (when?) it happens. Basically this allows institutions to buy spot Bitcoin through a trusted institution. This has the potential to drive up demand for BTC, which, as we all know will take crypto at large with it. But will the spot ETF get approved? Here’s some comments on why it was denied last time:
Regardless of how sensible any of these are to a given spectator, has any of this changed in the SEC’s eyes? This is where it gets iffy. The SEC can continue to cite these as reasons to not support a spot ETF because they are arguably inherent in the wild west of crypto. I thinks it’s a toss up, there’s got to be something in it for them, perhaps it’s global pressure to keep money and talent stateside that forces their hands.
Long term, a BTC spot ETF is inevitable. Whether it happens now, with BlackRock, is debatable. Long term bullish crypto is the winning hand, but what about in the near term, will this rally hold?
Consensus on CT seems to be that this spike was driven by bullish news causing buying, which triggered a mass liquidation of bears. This gave us a good ole fashion squeeze right past 30k. Well, in classic crypto degenerate fashion, ETH is being shorted to oblivion, again.
This of course has the potential to be more liquidation fuel. It makes me wonder though, why wouldn’t we see a decent correction after a 20%+ run? Are these shorters playing with that narrative in mind? In my opinion, it makes sense that we pull back from here. The news from BlackRock will cool off (these things don’t happen overnight) and the market will once again realize that the economy doesn’t look so hot.
JPow recently stated it will be appropriate to rates at least 1 more time, perhaps 3 more times by year end. Hawkish as they come. It’s not even the USA that’s the most fucked. UK now has core inflation at its highest since 1992 (7.1%). The Bank of England just smacked down their 13th consecutive hike, putting UK interest rates at the highest since 2008. Not to mention the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues on. The world at large isn’t looking too hot right now and many are calling for recession by year end.
To put a pin in all this, I think this recent pump was euphoria driven liquidations. We will see a correction as we ease into a recession and global turmoil continues. When prices return to accumulation zones, you know what to do.
Hasta luego, vaquero del espacio.